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ARI’s Fuel Projection Report – March 2018

North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (b) in February, a decrease of $4/b from the January level and the first month-over-month average decrease since June 2017. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $62/b in both 2018 and 2019 compared with an average of $54/b in 2017.

EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI contract values for May 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending March 1, 2018 suggest a range of $51/b to $76/b encompasses the market expectation for June 2018 WTI prices at the 95% percent confidence level.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in February, up 230,000 b/d from the January level, when there were some well freeze offs in the Permian and Bakken. EIA has reported that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017, ending the year with production of 9.9 million b/d in December. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will average 11.3 million b/d.

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