ARI PUSH
November 10, 2003
 
SIGNIFICANT NEWS A Compendium of News for Fleet Managers from 10/27/2003 -- 10/31/2003, 2003
1) Jeep Adding Car-Like Models, More SUVs 11) ChevronTexaco Stockholders Profit as Consumers Pay Higher Energy Prices, 2K Employees Await Pink Slip
2) 3 Sporty Hybrid Concepts Added to All-Japanese List 12) OPEC Pricing Policy Leading to Loss of Market Share as Higher-Cost Fields Develop
3) Ford Excursion May Win Reprieve 13) GM Study Says Daytime Running Lights Reduce Collisions
4) New Energy Bill Pleases Automakers, Disappoints Environmentalists 14) "Safety for Everyone" -- Honda Cars to Get Standard Side-Curtain Air Bags, SUVs Anti-Rollover
5) OPEC Regains Market Control w/ Increased Demand, Declining Western Reserves 15) Ford Hybrid Escape Production Set for July 2004; Futura Hybrid Planned
6) Detroit Not Competitive w/ Europeans, Japanese on Emissions Rules, Says World Resources Institute 16) Seattle Fleet Orders GM Hybrid Buses; Fuel Economy Gains up to 60%
7) Police Pursuits Aided by New Safety Technology 17) FMCSA Orders Inspections for Some Cargo Tanks after Catastrophic Failure Incident
8) States Lead the Way in Fight Against Global Warming 18) HOS Questions Arise Over Hazmat Drivers Placed Out of Service; Are They Off-Duty?
9) Transmissions Take the Spotlight 19) Nissan Launches Brash and Aggressive Advertising Campaign for Full-sized Titan Pickup
10) Costly, Sometimes Illegal Truck Idling Can be Avoided w/ Cost-Effective Devices, Truckstop Services 20) NAAA Opens Gathering w/ New "Roadmap to the Future"
1) Jeep Adding Car-Like Models, More SUVs

Situation

  • Jeep decides to widen lineup in both onroad, offroad segments
  • Addition of onroaders could give Jeep brand edition of Stratus/Sebring -- even Neon
  • SUV expansion promises Scrambler version of Wrangler pickup in 2004, 4-door Grand Cherokee, entry-level Liberty SUV in 2005 or 2006

Significant Points

  • Jeep refocus, recalling Jeep Eagle era, belated effort by DC to harness Jeep assets starting in 2004
  • COO Wolfgang Bernhard wants 99% of Jeeps to be used on-road
  • "Trail Rated Badge" ads part of massive new Jeep advertising/marketing campaign, Bernhard says at Texas press conference
  • Joe Eberhardt, Jeep's new marketing boss, says Jeep is strong brand that needs "core products, halo products that can go up and down the Rubicon Trail"

Web Source

Sourced From: Automotive News / October 27, 2003, Page 1

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2) 3 Sporty Hybrid Concepts Added to All-Japanese List

Situation

  • Tokyo show unveils gas-electric Mazda Ibuki, Subaru B9 Scrambler ragtop roadster, Toyota CS&S 2-seater as Subaru, Mazda join hybrid-engine list
  • Ibuki is smallest hybrid car of small crop on roads or enroute
  • Scrambler B9 not so benign, pumping 130 hp (vs Ibuki 160 hp) and signaling Subaru's future styling
  • Toyota's CS&S reveals 2 exotic ideas -- rear seats hidden by sliding canopy, sliding front seats that cover/lock steering wheel/storage areas
  • All are sporty models, concept cars, but show the trend in future vehicles coming to market

Significant Points

  • "Hybrids definitely have Americans' attention," says Jon Berry, senior research director at RoperASW
  • Nissan CEO calls Ibuki his "favorite non-Nissan vehicle at the show"
  • Hybrids called neat power advance by Patrick Pélata, Nissan executive VP of planning because 60%-70% of necessary hardware already exists on powertrain
  • Ibuki closer to production than other sportsters shown w/ hybrid technology
  • As offspring of Ford/GM, Mazda and Subaru could furnish parents w/ fruits of their hybrid development for smaller coupes and sedans

Web Source

Sourced From: USA Today, October 27, 2003, Page 3B

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3) Ford Excursion May Win Reprieve

Situation

  • Plan to scuttle Excursion in 2005 under review after sales slide tapers off
  • Sales of 17,887 Excursions Jan-Sept enough to warrant retention in lineup
  • Profits of up to $10K per vehicle spurs change of plans for 19-foot-long SUV
  • Super-huge SUV cause also bolstered by success of Hummer H2 -- both vehicles exempt from federal fuel-economy regulations
  • FordDiv President Steve Lyons says 2K sales a month, even 1K, could keep Excursion in lineup

Significant Points

  • Much-maligned Ford Excursion Super SUV likely to escape death penalty
  • Excursion had been dubbed "Ford Valdez" (reference to Exxon Valdez) prior to debut in 1999
  • Environmentalists frown on huge vehicles, gas guzzlers -- not happy w/ federal exempt status

Web Source

Sourced From: Detroit Free Press, October 28, 2003, Page 1C; New York Times, October 28, 2003, Page C3

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4) New Energy Bill Pleases Automakers, Disappoints Environmentalists

Situation

  • Automakers fiercely opposed aggressive new fuel economy requirements, forcing downsizing, safety compromise
  • UAW lobbied against the higher CAFE standards
  • Congress' new energy bill doesn't mandate specific oil savings goal or require NHTSA to write new fuel economy rules
  • No deadline set but creates more admin hurdles for NHTSA to increase fuel economy standards in future
  • Contentious issues to resolve include ethanol subsidy, tax credit allocation for energy producers and deregulation of electrical utilities
  • Ethanol issue centers on whether $0.052/gal tax break comes from highway or general revenue

Significant Points

  • Automakers say lower standards save jobs, boost safety, meet consumer demand for big, powerful cars and trucks
  • Environmentalists disappointed, arguing higher MPG mandate would reduce dependence on foreign oil and preserve environment
  • NHTSA currently must consider tech feasibility, economic practicability and energy conservation when determining MPG requirements
  • NHTSA must also consider safety and impact on employment levels in the US under new energy bill
  • Bill close to passage if remaining contentious issues don't kill it in negotiation between House and Senate versions

Web Source

Sourced From: Detroit News; The Wall Street Journal, October 28-29, 2003

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5) OPEC Regains Market Control w/ Increased Demand, Declining Western Reserves

Situation

  • Oct 3 is 30th anniversary of the Arab oil embargo and Western countries more dependent than ever
  • Embargo and price hikes result of frustration over Israel '73 war victory
  • Earlier misguided US attempts to control price and allocations by industry/region set up embargo shortages
  • Advances in exploration technology yielded more proven reserves of conventional oil today than 30 yrs ago
  • Given scarcity and weak economies,OPEC cartel shocked market last mo by voting to cut output even further

Significant Points

  • OPEC's influence reduced by wiser policies of energy conservation now making alarming comeback
  • Alaska and North Sea development checked OPEC market power but fields now started decline
  • Russia has largest reserves of any country outside Middle East
  • Saudi Arabia will continue role of supply buffer due to reserves and state ownership
  • Oil industry needs to invest as much as $2.2 trillion over the next 30 years in exploration and production

Web Source

Sourced From: The Economist, October 23, 2003

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6) Detroit Not Competitive w/ Europeans, Japanese on Emissions Rules, Says World Resources Institute

Situation

  • Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada, accounting for 43% of auto sales, enacting rules to cut carbon dioxide emissions as much as one-fourth of 1995 levels
  • GM, Ford will pay higher prices to meet emission rules than European, Japanese automakers that have raised fuel economy, rely on alternative energy, says World Resources Institute report
  • US has voluntary carbon dioxide reduction programs, CA passed law to force reductions
  • In US, relaxed CAFE rules led to strong demand in 1990's for SUVs, minivans
  • European, Japanese companies compete in big-vehicle US market and in home markets where fuel efficiency rules in effect
  • Report says global auto market increasingly defined by climate change concerns

Significant Points

  • Of 10 largest automakers, Honda best prepared to deal w/ stiffer rules
  • Toyota, which has developed alternative fuel technologies, could see earnings rise by 8%
  • GM, Ford risk losing up to 10% of earnings as market share erodes
  • Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers spokesman Eron Shosteck says, "We make more than 30 different models that get 30 miles per gallon or better. Very few consumers buy them."

Web Source

Sourced From: Bloomberg News via Detroit News, October 30, 2003

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7) Police Pursuits Aided by New Safety Technology

Situation

  • Police pursuing suspect or speeding motorist juggle flashers, siren, video camera while keeping in radio contact and driving
  • Visteon Corp's TACNET helps officers handle those tasks w/o compromising safety
  • University of NH engineers developed similar system called Project54, named for 60's TV comedy, "Car 54, Where are You?"

Significant Points

  • W/ TACNET, officer can choose from 3 different ways to operate cruiser's controls: voice activation, in-dash touch screen, or control pod
  • MI State Police testing TACNET; demo units also being sent to CA Highway Patrol, MD State Police
  • NH State Police testing Project54 which uses variety of standard voice-recognition programs or officers can operate by hand
  • W/ voice command, cruiser's lights, siren, flashing headlights, video camera turns on; message also sent to dispatch giving cruiser's location
  • Project54 allows officers to access FBI databases by voice, instead of typing on keyboard
  • Project54 planned enhancements to include hand-held device officer can use outside car to send messages or turn on cruiser equipment

Web Source

Sourced From: Detroit News, October 26, 2003

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8) States Lead the Way in Fight Against Global Warming

Situation

  • Motivated by environmental/economic concerns, states new force combating global warming
  • 1/2 states addressing global warming, thru legislation, lawsuits, programs started by governors
  • In last 3-yrs, state legislatures have passed at least 29 bills, usually w/ bipartisan support
  • Cities adopting new energy policies
  • Some initiatives in Congress, but even backers acknowledge that they are doomed
  • States acting partly because of predictions global warming could damage local economies

Significant Points

  • Most contentious is California's law to set strict limits for new cars on emissions
  • Efforts will put pressure on Congress and administration to enact federal legislation
  • Energy initiatives easier to move forward on the local level
  • Industry presence diluted on state level

Web Source

Sourced From: The New York Times, October 29, 2003

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9) Transmissions Take the Spotlight

Situation

  • The transmission is moving into spotlight
  • Mercedes-Benz has 7-speed automatic transmission, trumping arch rivals Audi, BMW, Jaguar
  • Other automakers supplanting floor shifter w/ fast levers mounted on or behind steering wheel
  • Boldest move is intro of transmission that straddles divide between automatics and stick shifts
  • Audi's 6-speed Direct Shift Gearbox is standard equipment on 2004 TT 3.2 quattro
  • 2004 TT 3.2 quattro has no clutch pedal, shifts gears by itself

Significant Points

  • Carmakers competing to develop more efficient ways of channeling engine power
  • Audi is the first to market Direct Shift Gearbox concept
  • Uses 2 clutches to feed power to 2 separate geartrains in transmission case
  • Benefit lies in its ability to shift from one ratio to next
  • W/o disconnecting the engine from the drive wheels

Web Source

Sourced From: The New York Times, October 27, 2003

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10) Costly, Sometimes Illegal Truck Idling Can be Avoided w/ Cost-Effective Devices, Truckstop Services

Situation

  • Truckers idle engines avg of 8-hrs/day, 300 days annually
  • Diesels burn 0.75-1 gal of fuel/hour while idling wasting 2,400 gal ($3.6K) and producing 21-tons of harmful emissions annually per truck
  • Excessive idling costs money, accelerates engine wear and can result in citation
  • Truckers idle to stay warm and prevent fuel gelling in winter, cool in summer and power creature comforts (TV, microwave) w/o draining batteries
  • Options to idling include using inverter/chargers, fuel-fired heaters/auxiliary power units (APUs) or plug-in truckstop services
  • Small diesels that power auxiliary heaters and APUs typically consume 80-90% less fuel per hour than truck engine

Significant Points

  • $5K cost for an APU w/ heating and cooling capabilities pays back in 2-3 yrs from fuel and maintenance savings
  • Teleflex, Espar, Onan, PonyPack, Aux Generators, Phillips Temro and Webasto offer heat, AC and power solutions
  • Many devices available as factory-installed options from many truck OEMs
  • Factory-installed invertor/convertors also available from OEM but truck stops w/ "shore power" hookup hard to find
  • SmartWay idle-reduction grant from EPA helping to fund truck and truck stop installations in some areas

Web Source

Sourced From: Drivers Magazine, November 1, 2003

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11) ChevronTexaco Stockholders Profit as Consumers Pay Higher Energy Prices, 2K Employees Await Pink Slip

Situation

  • ChevronTexaco 10/31/03 reported $1.97B 3rd Q profit based largely on high petroleum/NG prices
  • Largest profit since merger 2-yrs ago
  • Lost $904M in the same quarter a year earlier
  • Company's oil and natural gas production dropped 4% (103K brrls/day) to 2.458M brrls/day
  • Most of loss was in US as consequence of fields' maturity and permanently closing some storm damaged wells in Gulf
  • Also announced 2K jobs cut for early '05; 50% of cuts in US

Significant Points

  • Higher energy prices produced profit (oil avg $26/brrl, NG $4.65/tcf in US both up $2.75 from year ago)
  • Consumers paid avg $1.63/gal for unleaded regular in Aug compared w/ $1.42 a year earlier
  • Job cuts part of plan to reorganize management by business type, rather than geography
  • Also result of effort to sell $6B in oil fields, service stations and refineries during the next 3-yrs
  • Shares of ChevronTexaco rose $2.54 (3.54%) closing at $74.30 10/31/03

Web Source

Sourced From: San Francisco Chronicle, November 1, 2003, page B-1

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12) OPEC Pricing Policy Leading to Loss of Market Share as Higher-Cost Fields Develop

Situation

  • OPEC expects oil prices to stay stable through the rest of the year, but is concerned that a glut on the market could push prices too low next year
  • OPEC policy is to adjust output if price stays above or below $22-$28/brrl for an extended period of time
  • OPEC expects non-member countries to co-operate to keep the market balanced

Significant Points

  • OPEC implemented 900K brrls/day production cut Nov 1 to prevent price drop
  • Avg price of OPEC basket oil this year is almost $28/brrl
  • Losing market share to other producers as high prices permit competitors to invest and maximize capacity
  • Next OPEC meeting scheduled for Dec 4
  • Meeting w/ Russian and Mexican oil officials to maintain cooperation; Norway also non-OPEC producer
  • OPEC in trap of own making by fighting for high oil prices to meet short-term financial needs

Web Source

Sourced From: Associated Press, October 31, 2003; Voanews.com, October 30, 2003; Gulf News, October 29, 2003; AutomotiveDigest Staff

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13) GM Study Says Daytime Running Lights Reduce Collisions

Situation

  • GM releases study promoting benefits of daytime running lights (DRL)
  • Says GM customers have avoided over 37K collisions since 1995 when DRLs became standard equipment
  • GM has sold more than 30M vehicles w/ DRLs

Significant Points

  • GM used data from police and collision reports
  • Study shows estimated reductions in daytime multiple vehicle crashes from 2.3 to 12.5%
  • Most dramatic reduction came w/ vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes
  • Through 2001, estimated that DRLs helped drivers avoid 772 pedestrian collisions
  • NHTSA updating 2000 study that credited DRLs w/ reducing crashes by 7%
  • GM has asked NHTSA to require DRLs on all vehicles

Web Source

Sourced From: Automotive Intelligence; USA Today, October 28, 2003

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14) "Safety for Everyone" -- Honda Cars to Get Standard Side-Curtain Air Bags, SUVs Anti-Rollover

Situation

  • Honda plans to equip virtually all car models w/ side-curtain, front-side air bags and anti-lock brakes; make standard by end of 2006
  • SUVs, minivans will be equipped w/ stability equipment
  • Also, rollover-sensing side-curtain air-bag systems designed to prevent passengers from being ejected through windows
  • Honda playing catch-up w/ Volvo, already offering stability-control systems, side-curtain air bags standard on many models, but move would get a jump on mass-market rivals
  • Honda calls strategy "Safety for Everyone"

Significant Points

  • Honda's rivals more cautious about making high-tech safety systems standard, particularly on low-priced, big rebate models
  • GM considering stepping-up pace of equipping all models w/ side-curtain air bags
  • Ford offers side-curtain air bags on several models as an option, $560 on Explorer
  • Chrysler Pacifica, new Dodge Durango also offer side-curtain air bags as option
  • Stability-control systems standard on all Toyota, Lexus SUVs
  • Insurance Institute for Highway Safety released study in Aug reporting head-protecting air bags could reduce driver fatalities in side collisions by as much as 45%

Web Source

Sourced From: The Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2003

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15) Ford Hybrid Escape Production Set for July 2004; Futura Hybrid Planned

Situation

  • Ford Motor Co will start production of hybrid gasoline-electric versions of its Escape SUV in July 2004
  • Target of selling 10,000 to 20,000 a year
  • No price yet, but Ford says hybrid Escape would be profitable
  • Yet full cost of developing hybrid system would not be paid by Escape buyers, says Ford
  • Hybrid Escape will be built on same assembly line in Claycomo, Missouri, that builds regular Escapes
  • General Motors and Chrysler GP both plan to launch hybrid pickups next year

Significant Points

  • Escape may get up to 40 MPG city, 31 highway vs 19 and 25 MPG for V-6 Escape
  • 2004 Toyota Prius sedan gets 60 MPG in city driving
  • Toyota promises hybrid version of Lexus RX330 next year
  • Ford says a hybrid Futura is planned, but no details on other hybrids

Web Source

Sourced From: Reuters via Automotive News, October 31, 2003

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16) Seattle Fleet Orders GM Hybrid Buses; Fuel Economy Gains up to 60%

Situation

  • General Motors' 1st hybrid powertrain will take to the road next summer in Seattle's fleet of city buses
  • Powertrain production will start in MarCH
  • 1st buses to hit the streets in June
  • GM's hybrid bus powertrain is a parallel system
  • Diesel engine is 8.8-liter turbocharged inline-6 connected to a continuously variable transmission
  • Twin electric motors power bus at low speeds, and engine takes over at about 5 MPH

Significant Points

  • GM says diesel-electric powertrain produces exhaust emissions that are 90% cleaner than a standard diesel engine used in a regular city bus
  • GM powertrain delivers fuel economy gains of as much as 60%
  • Powertrain accelerates faster than a traditional diesel-powered bus
  • Seattle's King County Transit Authority is projected to save 750,000 gal of diesel fuel a year once its 213 diesel-electric buses are in service
  • Hybrid bus should get about 5.5 MPG on flat city streets, says GM

Web Source

Sourced From: Automotive News, October 27, 2003

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17) FMCSA Orders Inspections for Some Cargo Tanks after Catastrophic Failure Incident

Situation

  • FMCSA is ordering all DOT specification MC-307/312 cargo tanks to be inspected no later than Dec 31, 2003
  • Follows Jan 5, 2002 catastrophic failure when this cargo tank trailer broke in 2 pieces
  • Failure occurred in void area between 1st and 2nd tank
  • Tanks are joined to form a single trailer using stainless steel tie bands that overlap adjoining ends
  • Federal Register notice will be issued after Dec 31, 2003, addressing those tanks that have not yet been inspected

Significant Points

  • All tanks still in service should be inspected no later than Dec 31, 2003, in accordance w/ Truck Trailer Manufacturer Association Technical Bulletin TB-121-03
  • FMCSA suggests the following steps be taken prior to required inspection:
  • Identify MC 307/312 cargo tanks manufactured prior to Jan 1983 w/ designs similar to tank involved in incident Jan 5, 2002
  • Locate these tanks and determine status of each tank (ie still in service, removed from service, has been sold, scrapped, etc)
  • For those tanks no longer in service, gather documentation from owner of the tank supporting reasons why tank is no longer in service
  • Inspect those tanks still in service in accordance w/ TTMA's Technical Bulletin TB-121-03

Web Source

Sourced From: Landline Magazine, October 30, 2003

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18) HOS Questions Arise Over Hazmat Drivers Placed Out of Service; Are They Off-Duty?

Situation

  • Instructional Technologies Inc (ITI) says it uncovered an important hours-of-service (HOS) issue while finishing developmental work on new training modules
  • Question concerns hazmat drivers placed out of service:
  • If driver is placed out of service at a roadside location for a logbook violation and has exceeded 14-hr on-duty limit, is driver still moved to off-duty status if load is placarded [for hazardous material]?
  • Driver is required by HOS regulations to go off-duty, but at same time is required to remain w/ haz-mat vehicle
  • So, can he or she be made to remain w/ the load even though technically off-duty?

Significant Points

  • After extensive research, ITI received this official interpretation from Mary Moehring, division chief for FMCSA:
  • "In the situation you describe, the driver could not record his or her duty status as off-duty after being placed out of service if he/she is required by 49 CFR 397.5 to stay with the vehicle"
  • "Section 397.5 (d) specifically provides that attendance on a vehicle means a driver is ‘awake, not in the sleeper berth or is within 100 feet of the vehicle and has it within his/her unobstructed field of view’
  • "Therefore, the driver must remain on-duty indefinitely while the motor carrier dispatches someone to relieve the driver"
  • But could the driver in this circumstance still be found in violation of HOS provisions if he or she exceeds the 14-hour on-duty limit as required by 397.5 (d)?
  • "Being on-duty is not a violation, although it will, of course, impact the number of hours available under the 60/70 hour rule. The driver would be in violation, however, if he or she starts to drive in this situation"

Web Source

Sourced From: Drivers Magazine, November 1, 2003

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19) Nissan Launches Brash and Aggressive Advertising Campaign for Full-sized Titan Pickup

Situation

  • Ten years after Toyota ventured into big pickup market, Nissan trying different approach
  • Titan campaign looks nothing like Toyota's initial T100 campaign
  • It is brash, aggressive and all about being full-sized
  • Teaser ads debuted Oct 20; 30-second spots roll out in the next month
  • Research showed customers questioned whether import brand could offer full-sized truck
  • Buyers in 5 categories: contractors, farmers, fleet sales, RV enthusiasts, appearance buyers

Significant Points

  • Advertising campaign for full-sized pickup brash and aggressive
  • Nissan will try to distinguish Titan as a big, bold and powerful truck
  • Toyota "tiptoed" into market when it introduced the T100 in 1993
  • Competition not mentioned by name; ads aimed at Big 3 loyalists
  • Finding buyers may be a challenge

Web Source

Sourced From: Automotive News, October 27, 2003

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20) NAAA Opens Gathering w/ New "Roadmap to the Future"

Situation

  • Start of new era seen for National Auto Auction Assn (NAAA) at recent convention
  • Members set out on new course w/ guidance based on study by Boston Consulting Group
  • 500-page report called NAAA's "Roadmap to the Future"

Significant Points

  • NAAA wants members to have louder voice on regulatory issues and bigger presence online
  • Incoming president Tony Long asked members to be patient w/ changes
  • Changes are expected to generate controversy within membership

Web Source

Sourced From: Used Car News, October 20, 2003

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