Automotive Resources International
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
9000 Midlantic Drive
Mount Laurel, NJ 08054
ARI PUSH No. 20
July 17, 1998
1) ARI ANNOUCES WILLIAM McKEE AS THE NEW PRESIDENT OF ARI
INDUSTRY NEWS
1. CHRYSLER POSTS RECORD PROFIT OF $1 BILLION
2. MERCEDES U.S. PRODUCTION MAY SHOW DIRECTION FOR
DAIMLER-BENZ/CHRYSLER
3. GM FAILS TO SETTLE CONFRONTATION DESPITE SIGNS OF PROGRESS
4. GM DEALERS WORRY ABOUT PROFITS & DEFECTIONS AS GM STRIKE
CONTINUES
5. GM WALKOUT TALKS IMPASSE MAKES SETTLEMENT UNLIKELY TIL AUGUST
6. U.S. CAR, LIGHT TRUCK SALES AT HIGHEST RATE IN 10 YEARS
7. NISSAN DIESEL UNDECIDED ON DIESEL ENGINE & DAIMLER DEAL
8. FORD, CHRYSLER WHEEL & DEAL WITH REBATES & FINANCING AS GM
STRIKE CONTINUES
9. SIGNS OF SETTLEMENT SHORTLY AS GM, UAW TALKS PROGRESS
10. GM STRIKE CAUSES FLEETS TO WAIVER ON '99 ORDERS
11. FORD ANNOUNCES 1999 FLEET PROGRAMS
1) ARI ANNOUCES WILLIAM McKEE AS THE NEW PRESIDENT OF ARI
ARI has announced the promotion of Bill McKee to president of ARI,
effective September 1, 1998. For the past six years, Bill McKee has served as executive vice president of ARI, a subsidary of Holman Enterprises, Pennsauken, NJ. He replaces Mike Laporta, who is retiring after 14 years as president.
McKee, former CEO of McDonnell Douglas Truck Services for 17 years, plans to build on the success of the company, which celebrates its 50tH anniversary this year. ARI has been the fastest-growing leasing company nationally over the past five years.
"Holman Enterprises is pleased to announce the promotion of Mr. McKee, who brings a wealth of automotive, leasing and financial experience that will help ARI strengthen its leadership position in the competitive fleet leasing and management industry," said John W. Kolb, chairman of ARI and vice chairman and president of Holman Enterprises.
McKee graduated from Drexel University and is a CPA. He currently
resides in Ambler, P.A. with his wife.
INDUSTRY NEWS
1)CHRYSLER POSTS RECORD PROFIT OF $1 BILLION
[Source : Financial Times, UK, July 15, page 4]
Source: Wall Street Journal Tuesday, July 14, 1998
The Good News at Chrysler is:
1. Second-quarter earnings of $1 billion
2. Earnings amount to $1.51 a diluted share
3. Analysts forecast $1.41 a share
4. Analysts' forecast full-year earnings at $5.10
5. Auto business cash surges to $9.24 billion as of June 30 following Daimler
merger plans. Chrysler plans investing the extra cash (about $2 billion) in
new technologies or new vehicles
The Truth of the Situation is:
* In 1997, Chrysler earnings were $3.99 a share.
* Chrysler said its sales incentives averaged $1,485 a vehicle in the second quarter, up 21%
* Pretax earnings per vehicle were $1,675 in the second quarter down from $1,830
* Chrysler cut $400 to $500 million in manufacturing operations costs in second quarter
* Chrysler on schedule to cut costs by $1.5 billion this year, up .3 billion from a year ago
* Chrysler to produce fewer Grand Cherokee SUV as its factory retools for a revised model.
2) MERCEDES U.S. PRODUCTION MAY SHOW DIRECTION FOR DAIMLER-BENZ/CHRYSLER
The situation:
1. Merger Daimler-Benz and Chrysler could result in more MB
vehicles being manufactured in States.
2. Daimler-Benz' plant offers 'a glimpse of the German company's future'.
3. 1,400 people are employed at Tuscaloosa. Emmet Meir, Vice President for human resources says size of operation based on Tuscaloosa model may be limited.
4. Management at plant remember fierce arguments in early days
between Germans and Americans over production values and production
systems.
Significance for US companies & global markets:
1. There's a great deal of useful experience from Tuscaloosa .
2. Whether Daimler-Benz will want more production in States is
still open.
###
3) GM FAILS TO SETTLE CONFRONTATION DESPITE SIGNS OF PROGRESS
Source: The Wall Street Journal/NY Times Tuesday, July 14, 1998
The GM Strike Situation is:
* Differences remain over GM's demand for assurances of labor
peace upon settlement
* Proposals submitted show signs of progress
* Central issue is that GM stopped investing in the Flint plant
pending productivity gains
* Flint shutdowns for most of the past five weeks idle 165,000 GM employees
* GM shares lost $2.3125 to close at $68.875
* Wall Street analysts estimate strike costing GM $75 million a day or more
* GM restarts only 3 of 29 assembly plants in North America
* GM continues to pursue a legal complaint accusing the UAW of using the parts factories to wage in effect a national strike
What 's Expected to Happen Soon:
1. GM to report sharply reduced second-quarter earnings
2. GM's Oshawa, Ont., plant to run out of parts and close
3. GM to call back workers at its Pontiac, Mich., truck plant to
begin launching prototypes
4. GM is expected to drop its funding of health-care benefits for idled UAW workers I
5. UAW to start picking up the tab for health benefits from union's
$700 million strike fund
Assessment by GM official:
In a recorded message to employees via an 800 number, Don Hackworth, the GM vice president in charge of manufacturing predicted "a long haul" before a settlement is reached. He also said that GM would continue to challenge the legality of the Flint strikes.
Hackworth adds, `We continue to lag behind the competition - as they continue to get better, our volumes continue to shrink
###
4) GM DEALERS WORRY ABOUT PROFITS & DEFECTIONS AS GM STRIKE CONTINUES
Source: Automotive News
Monday, July 13, 1998
USA Today
Monday, July 13, 1998
The Situation at Spartan Chevrolet (Flint, Mich.) is:
* Customer options limited - no SUVS, minivans available
* Inventory depleted due to spring incentive wars
* Dealership staff spends free-time calling other dealerships for
new and used cars
* Used-car prices up at auctions due to strike
* Service and body shop yet unaffected
* Profit still depends on new car sales; goal of more than 704
vehicles in jeopardy
The Situation Nationwide at GM Dealerships:
* Dealers say many customers won't wait and are buying cars and
trucks from competitors
* GM's market share fell to 28.6% in February; up to 31% in June due to incentives
* of GM dealers will be out of inventory by the end of July
* Some GM dealers are giving rental cars/ two-month leases to
their most loyal customers
* Multi-franchise GM dealers are taking more vehicles from other manufacturers
Significance of Strike at Spartan Chevrolet
1. After strike ends, dealership won't return to normal activity
for four to five weeks
2. Service and body shop activity up; cover 70% of dealership
expenses, up from 60%
###
5) GM WALKOUT TALKS IMPASSE MAKES SETTLEMENT UNLIKELY TIL AUGUST
Source: The Wall Street Journal Monday, July 13, 1998
The Current Strike Situation at GM is:
* Face-to-face talks broke off; no closer to resuming operations
* Clear setback; five-week-old confrontation continues
* GM had been scheduled to resume production today following its
two-week summer-vacation shutdown.
* GM to continue pursuing a grievance questioning the strikes' legality
* Settlement has grown elusive as both sides bid stakes far higher than the original union demands related to health and safety, outsourcing and work rules
* GM management needs assurances it will have labor stability upon settlement
GM Strike History:
* Disputes started over last three years on a local level have cost GM $2.87 billion
Significance of Strike Continuing:
1. Means $75 million of red ink a day
2. June earnings reduced to $1.18 billion
3. GM shares were unchanged at $71.1875 each
Assessment by UAW Official:
"It will be hard to settle it much sooner than mid-August," he said.
"But GM does have the wherewithal to settle these strikes very quickly."
-- UAW Vice President Richard Shoemaker
###
6) U.S. CAR, LIGHT TRUCK SALES AT HIGHEST RATE IN 10 YEARS
Source: The Wall Street Journal Tuesday, July 7, 1998
The U.S. Vehicle Sales Situation is:
* June sales were 1,577,400 cars and light trucks
* Up 14% in June, most robust level of the decade
* Clearly driving sales were record levels of incentives & cash discounts
* Incentives averaged $1,400 a vehicle for GM, $1,500 for Ford and
$1,750 for Chrysler
* Ford and Chrysler match GM's program with own customer loyalty plans
* Five-year low interest rates spur sales as well
Effects of U.S. Sales Success on GM:
1. GM to cut off sales to fleet customers to remain competitive
through July
2. GM only able to provide 65% to 70% of the replacement parts
needed by service department; Some GM repairs are going undone
3. Some GM used cars not sold due to lack of parts to bring them up
to standard
4. Ford & Chrysler expect to gain market share in July as GM
dealers start to run out of vehicles
Observations by Industry Analysts:
"Even though many of the incentives are expiring, " The economy is so
strong that we expect the vehicle sales rate in July to fall into the
normal range of 15 million to 15.5 million vehicles a year, adjusting
for the effect of the GM strike, rather than plunging much lower as
often happens when incentives run out."
----David Littmannn, Chief Economist, Coamerica Bank
1. ``July sales will collapse,'' predicts David Healy, an analyst
with Burnham Securities Inc. in New York. GM sales are expected to drop
between 30 percent and 40 percent this month compared with July 1997
because of the strikes."
---David Healy, Burnham Securities, New York
###
7) NISSAN DIESEL UNDECIDED ON DIESEL ENGINE & DAIMLER DEAL
The Latest Situation at Nissan Diesel is:
1. Diesel engine developed jointly by Nissan Diesel & Nissan Motor is up for
grabs.
2. Newly developed fuel-efficient direct-injection ZD model diesel
engine
3. Nissan Diesel still undecide on who to sell ; Interested in selling model
to various places
4. Possibility of supplying the 3000cc direct-injection engine to Germany's
Daimler- Benz AG
5. No decision yet about Daimler-Benz buying a stake in Nissan Diesel
What the Future Holds for Nissan Diesel:
* Considering halting production temporarily after August due to sluggish
domestic truck demand,
* Workforce currently being reduced through natural attrition and
early retirement.
* Down to 4,936 employees as of March 31.
STAY TUNED
8) FORD, CHRYSLER WHEEL & DEAL WITH REBATES & FINANCING AS GM STRIKE
CONTINUES
The Situation with Ford & Chrysler Strike Stategy is:
5. Ford and Chrysler have announced rebates and cheap loans
6. Ford and Chrysler officials denye trying to take advantage of GM
7. Stock at GM dealerships is becoming scarce: Shortages primarily
in the Midwest;
8. The "Deals" from Ford
* Eliminates $500 customer rebate on Crown Victoria & Mercury
Grand Marquis
* Rebates up to $2,000 on some models
* Offer loan rates as cheap as 0.9% annually for 4 years& 3.9% for
5 years
9. Chrysler's Money Deals:
* Rebates increased to $1,500 on Chrysler Cirrus, Dodge Stratus
and Plymouth Breeze seda
* Loan rates as low as 1.9% for two years and 5.9% for five years
What the Analysts are Saying:
2. ``These incentives are aimed at GM,'' ---Art Spinella of CNW Marketing/Research.
3. Lincoln Merrihew of J.D. Power and Associates says the strike
has put GM's 30% share of the market up for grabs. ``If a team's star
player is out, the competing team doesn't pull up,'' he says.
Ford and Chrysler's Assessment:
* Chrysler spokesman Jeff Leestma says the programs ``are extensions of
incentives that have been in place for the last three or four quarters. This
would have happened presumably anyway.''
Significance as seen by GM:
* ``There are still cars in the marketplace,'' ``We are not in disaster
mode yet.''
---Jim Farmer, GM Spokeperson
###
9) SIGNS OF STRIKE SETTLEMENT SHORTLY AS GM, UAW TALKS PROGRESS
Source: The Wall Street Journal Wednesday, July 8, 1998
The GM Strike Situation at mid-week:
* Signs emerged of a potential breakthrough to end strikes
* GM pressing the UAW to pledge no further strikes as part of any
settlement
* UAW is resisting making any such promise
* National GM-UAW agreement is up for renegotiation summer of 1999
* Complicating settlement talks is possible closure of 2 former
GM factories in Flint
* Union may agree to labor peace in exchange for certain
plant-level concessions by GM
HOW THE UAW SEES THE NEGOTIATIONS:
* Richard Shoemaker, the UAW vice president who is handling the negotiations
with GM, called the plan to close the two plants "a violation of the [GM] national
agreement, which prohibits plant closures." Mr. Shoemaker said he does intend
to discuss the matter with company executives and termed the Peregrine announcement
"another indication that GM's divestiture of plants will be a huge issue for
the parties in 1999" during national contract negotiations.
AS SEEN BY BY SAAVY INDUSTRY ANALYST:
* Steve Girsky, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said GM is under considerable pressure to emerge with an agreement protecting the company from walkouts elsewhere. GM has posted losses totaling $2.87 billion over the past three years from a series of such disputes, including $1.18 billion in lost production so far from the current strikes.
###
10) GM Strike Causes Fleets to Waiver on '99 Orders
How is the GM Strike Impacting Fleet Managers?:
* Fleet Managers try order '99 Models in July & August
* Fleets are delaying order decision to see if strike settles
* Orders for pickups are being delayed, particularly
* Delay in replacing vehicles may impact resale return
* Fleets like to replace vehicles in October, if possible
Some Quotes from two large vehicle lessors"
"GM's labor problems are forcing some of our clients to hedge their
bets."
---Bob Cochrane, Sr.VP, GE Capital Fleet, Minneapolis
"We have clients out there now deciding which product to go with. They'd
be inclined to go with Ford or Chrysler, if GM is not able to deliver."
---Don Kreft, President, Lease Plan, Atlanta
11) FORD ANNOUNCES FLEET PROGRAM
Ford will be announcing their "1999 Fleet Programs" on July 20, 1998, in Las Vegas at their 1999 Product Show for commercial accounts.
In the next two weeks anyone that is ordering a Ford Taurus needs to be aware that Ford plans to offer the "Fleet Group," option package 60F for either "no charge" or a "minimal" charge of $100. This package includes: power driver seat w/power lumbar, aluminum wheels and a light group. (Dealer cost in 1998 was $570.)