Fuel Projection Report: January 2020

Fuel Projection Report

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.60 per gallon (gal) in 2019, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that they will average $2.63/gal in both 2020 and 2021.

The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, up 1.3 million b/d from 2018. The EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million b/d in 2020 and 13.7 million b/d in 2021. Most of the production growth in the forecast occurs in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum product fell from an average of 2.3 million b/d in 2018 to an average of 0.5 million b/d in 2019, and the EIA estimates the U.S. has exported more total crude oil and petroleum products than it has imported since U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2020 2 September. The EIA forecasts that the U.S. will be a net exporter of total crude oil and petroleum products by 0.8 million b/d in 2020 and by 1.4 million b/d in 2021.

Natural Gas Report

U.S. dry natural gas production set a new record in 2019, averaging 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts dry natural gas production will rise to 94.7 Bcf/d in 2020 and then decline to 94.1 Bcf/d in 2021. Production in the Appalachian region drives the forecast as it shifts from growth in 2020 to declining production in 2021.

The EIA forecasts that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2020, down from $2.57/MMBtu in 2019. The EIA expects that natural gas prices will then increase in 2021, reaching an annual average of $2.54/MMBtu.

More Resources

For a deeper understanding of this month’s forecast, access this fleet industry perspective, fuel projection report and natural gas report from ARI.